I missed out on what I’m calling a “Supernova” bet (totally stolen from a stock trader I used to follow, Tim Sykes) which means the team you bet on starts winning as soon as you bet on them and the other team doesn’t come close to catching up for the rest of the game. The feeling is the equivalent of betting the Over in baseball and hitting it in the first inning.
Thats exactly what I missed out on last night. Down 6 in the first, the Kansas ML was -120 and I even posted that I wanted to bet on them, but the Gonzaga/WVU game was going on and I didn’t get a chance to watch nearly enough of Kansas to feel confident in my bet if I placed one on KU. So I backed off and posted about it instead.
As SOON as I hit submit, Kansas starting draining buckets left and right and Purdue didn’t stand a chance for the rest of the game. Chances are I would’ve bet $120 on -120 and would’ve won an EASY $100. But I couldn’t place the bet because, if I want to take this betting strategy seriously, I need to be smart with my money. It could’ve easily gone the other direction (and has in the past) and I would’ve been kicking myself for not following these rules I’ve set up for myself – and might have even gone on tilt after that – betting heavy on Arizona to make up for it, and we all know how that turned out.
Moral of the story: whatever betting strategy you feel is best for you, while you have a level-head, give yourself some rules to follow that’ll help protect you and your bankroll. If you feel like you’re on tilt or on a cold streak, go back and take a look at every bet you placed (you do track your bets right?) and how many bets you would’ve won lost if you followed your own rules. I think you might be surprised.
Class dismissed. Lets make some $$.